Ebike Industry Updates

If you are tired of seeing clickbait titles about some new battery chemistry, I actually want to tell you that there will be no huge sudden change, except for the upgrades I recently wrote about. A few months ago in July, we wrote about how nearly everyone is adding silicon to the anodes of lithium batteries (to see that, click here), because it dramatically improves the speed that the battery can be charged at, and it also increases the energy density of those same batteries.

Just before that in June, we wrote about how the Chinese company CATL was now the largest battery company in the world, and the Chinese government had spent $23 Billion dollars to develop every new battery advancement that might be possible (to see that article, click here).

While researching the information for those articles, I kept seeing articles and youtubes about sodium and sulfur batteries, and today I’m writing about what I’ve learned about these new chemistries, and how they compare to the Lithium-based batteries we have been using for the last 20 years.

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Lithium Supplies

As soon as I saw this, I knew it would be cool to post it. I don’t know if this sidecar can easily attach to any other available ebike frame, but it exists right now, and it can be found at the website for Mod-Bikes.com

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Features

As of October 2024, the listed price is around $4300 for both the ebike and sidecar, and their website claims it will be available in November of 2024. Right now, the color selections for the sidecar are black and Army green. It appears as though all models have dual disc brakes, which I like.

For that price, you get an ebike with a 750W rear geared hubmotor from Bafang. The top-speed is 28-MPH, which we approve of, since the side-streets ebikes are allowed to ride on are also populated by 3,000-lb cars that have a 25-MPH speed limit.

A while back, we wrote about the latest hot news concerning electric aircraft that were under development, and I noticed that one of them had a back-up generator as a range extender (to see that article, click here). I have friends that think a hybrid is the “worst of both worlds” but as I’ve said before concerning EV cars, I still believe that a hybrid drivetrain is a viable option for the next decade, or at least it is in some applications (to see our hybrid EV article, click here).

Well, I recently began seeing lots of announcements about hybrid aircraft under development. These still have the major benefits that electric planes have, such as a much quieter take-off at small municipal airports, along with reduced exhaust emissions. Another major factor driving small electric aircraft development is the potential fuel savings, and also the maintenance costs of engine-rebuilding after it has reached its maximum safe life, since electric motors can run many more years before a rebuild. By the way, when a brushless electric motor does eventually need a rebuild, its pretty much just replacing two shaft-bearings!

It appears that the current drive to spend some effort and money on a hybrid plane is due to certain businesses wanting to get busy flying an alternative powerplant much sooner, instead of waiting any longer for certification of a pure EV plane. We recently wrote about the new developments in battery chemistry, and even though I now feel comfortable saying that the new chemistries will be here “soon”, I know that battery labs have been saying this for a decade.

And this brings us back to hybrids. Aircraft will still definitely take advantage of the new batteries when they become available. You know, the ones with super-fast charging, and twice as many miles per volume. However, its pretty easy to use off-the-shelf components to create a hybrid plane, and a few companies feel that this is the path forward for their near future.

When accelerating for takeoff, a plane’s engines are run at full power. But once they begin cruising along at a level altitude, their cruise setting uses much less power. This means that when a hybrid plane has the impressive torque of an electric motor for the take-offs, the range-extending engine/generator can be much smaller than the size of engine that the plane might normally require.

When the Sur-Ron 60V “Light Bee” electric dirt bike came out in January of 2018, it was an instant hit with high sales because it was much more affordable compared to the Alta and the Zero off-road motorcycles. Then, a new competitor showed up a short time later, the 60V MX-4 Talaria Sting (to see that article from April 2023, click here). I wrote about the benefits of the Talaria Sting which was mainly an improved modern “IPM” style of motor that could handle future performance upgrades, compared to the old-style SPM.

Electric hot-rodders have typically taken one of two routes to improving performance, for riders who want that “little something extra”. You can swap-out the controller to improve the amps, which helps acceleration. However even though this was the cheapest way to get harder acceleration, more amps equals more heat, which leads us to the second way to improve performance…

Bumping up the volts from 60V to 72V.

Doing this raises the power without a significant increase in heat. These motors can take quite a bit of heat, but the controllers and batteries can be sensitive to heat, if you like to run steep uphills for long distances, with no cooling-off period where you re simply cruising along.

The only issue with upgrading to 72V is the cost of swapping-out the controller and also the battery. Enough existing riders might like to have a spare 60V Sur-Ron or Talaria battery pack, that you should be able to sell the stock unit to defray some of the swap-costs. However, if you know you already want to have the ultimate electric dirt bike, the most cost-effective option is to buy a factory 72V Talaria.

CATL is now the biggest EV battery producer in the world. A little over 15 years ago, a lot of deep pockets decided to spend a ton of money on battery improvements, and we are now seeing the results of those investments.

In 2007, the EV industry got a boost when a man named Wan Gang became China’s minister of science and technology. Wan had been a big fan of EVs, and then he drove Tesla’s first EV Roadster as soon as it came out in 2008. He was a key influence in China making the national decision to go all-in on electric vehicles.

From 2009 to 2020, the Chinese government pumped $29-Billion into every Chinese company that had the ability to improve batteries and make EV’s. That equals $100-million dollars 290 times. And they also offered subsidies for EV purchases, and ordered the electrification of the all their nations buses and taxi’s to jump-start the process.

When Tesla wanted to sell EV’s in China, the government would only allow that if they used a Chinese-made battery. So Tesla contracted with CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd) to build a factory there. Then, in 2020, US subsidies were changed so that EV’s sold here had to have at least 50% of the battery made in the US. So…CATL built a battery plant in Marshall, Michigan, in partnership with Ford.

Panasonic (Japan), LG Chem (S. Korea), and BYD (China) are all major players when it comes to making EV battery packs, but recently, CATL has become the largest in the world with 34% of all EV batteries sold in 2023.

Batteries have reached a tipping point this year because silicon anodes are actually being produced and they do two things. They double the range of battery packs, and they allow incredibly fast charging.

First let me say that just about any advance in batteries involves some basic chemistry that was known decades ago. Lithium, Silicon, Sodium, and Sulfur were all identified as fantastic battery materials. However, the problem is always in the details. All of these have been experimented with, and it was just sheer luck that in the 1990’s Lithium-Ion cathodes and graphite anodes turned out the be the first big combination that worked well, and could be scaled-up to mass production at an affordable price.

For instance, even with the chemistry options set aside, we have been promised “Solid State Batteries” for over a decade. They actually exist in labs already, along with very expensive samples working right now on the International Space Station. The problem is in figuring out how to mass-produce large SSB’s, and to do it cheaply.

The majority of research during the early 2000’s has been on improving the positive Cathode, by tweaking the lithium chemistry with “NCM” which is Nickel, Cobalt, and Manganese. Great efforts have gone into reducing the amount of Cobalt used because it is rare, and much of it is mined under horrible conditions in Africa. Back in 2019, we wrote about how NMC532 cathodes (5% Nickel, 3% Manganese, and 2% Cobalt) now look like they would last 20 years of use (to see that article, click here). I noticed in the documents I researched, that this three-additive chemistry group is often called a “Ternary” chemistry, which means a group of three components.

About ten years ago, a massive amount of money started to flow into research on the anodes of batteries, the “negative” electrode. This research is ongoing, but a few years back, silicon had a breakthrough, and now everyone is jumping on it, because the immediate effect is that the batteries are doubling their capacity, and charging times are shockingly fast (with future improvements being likely). The chart above represents thousands of patents that have been filed concerning the materials and processes that would allow silicon anodes to work.

The previous tariff on EV’s from China was an added 25% tax to “level the playing field for American-made EV’s”. That tariff was raised to 100% as of May 2024, so I wondered what kind of cars are being made in China, that would be doubled in price by this tariff increase?

I am really amazed at the variety of cars I found from China that I didn’t even know existed. I have just written an article about BYD after I saw on the news that they have recently passed Tesla as the largest manufacturer of EV’s on Earth (to see that article, click here). I just wanted to see which BYD’s people were buying, and if they might be coming to the US soon. I was very surprised at the variety of cars that BYD makes.

During my search to see all the different models that BYD makes, I kept coming across other interesting EV’s from car companies that I had never even heard of. The world population is roughly 8.1-Billion, and the population of China is about 1.4-Billion, so…more than 1 out of 8 people in the world are Chinese. The last four decades have seen China expanding and diversifying their manufacturing base. Not only did millions of Chinese employees want to buy new EV’s, but China also wants to export EV’s to the entire world.

Tesla and Rivian do not currently make a small EV, and the most affordable small American EV is the Chevy Bolt. The Tesla Model-3 and the Rivian R3 are not “large”, but they are larger than the Bolt, and both are significantly more expensive. The BYD “Seagull” 5-door hatchback EV has been mentioned on the internet as a small EV that US manufacturers fear. The Base model is supposedly $12,000, but once you add shipping plus the 100% $12,000 tariff, you arrive at $26,000 plus state and federal sales taxes.

And it doesn’t end there. Ever since the Covid economy, car sales have been down, so US car dealers have only been ordering the more profitable “fully loaded” models, which could tack on another $10,000 of markup to the Seagulls price ($36,000?). Some EV’s have qualified for a $7,500 tax incentive, but that might only apply to US-made EV’s.

There’s a lot of discussion about tariffs right now to keep out products that would disrupt domestic products, like vehicles from Tesla, Ford, GM, and Dodge. A tariff is a tax that makes imported products more expensive. There are several companies in China that are making cheap EV’s, but make no mistake, any talk about tariffs is because of BYD.

They are selling about 10,000 cars a month around the world, roughly split between electric cars and hybrid gas/electric. Most of our readers are from the USA, and you may not have heard of BYD. They have been leaving the EU and the US for last, due to the added difficulties of meeting the detailed requirements in those regions. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, because it can also mean they have been able to work the bugs out of their designs over the past ten years.

They have begun selling the AWD version of their Tang SUV in Norway, as the first step in their EU expansion. Norway has generous government subsidies for EV purchases due to their oil-fed sovereign wealth fund. What this means is that Norway has very few people, and a LOT of oil and natural gas, so the taxes on their oil industry have created a huge pile of surplus cash that they use to provide benefits to their citizens. It also helps that their cities are very densely packed, so Norwegians typically don’t have to drive far to get around. Also, gas and diesel car engines may have a hard time starting in their sub-zero winters, while EV’s run just fine in the cold.

BYD has also opened up a warehouse and office near Los Angeles (in Pasedena), in preparation for their push into US markets. And its not just cars, BYD is a huge global company that also makes large electric and hybrid vehicles like buses, heavy-transport trucks, trash-trucks, forklifts, and batteries for power storage from solar farms.

Competition is good, but the history of BYD appears to show that they have the full backing of the Chinese government, and the companies that it will be competing with feel that BYD has an unfair advantage, since they don’t actually need to make a profit to survive. For instance, customers in South America, Africa, and China have the option to buy the BYD “Seagull” for roughly $12,000. That’s an eye-popping price for an EV, even if it is pretty small.

When Rivian was first announced, I didn’t know if they were going to survive or end up like Fiskar, Faraday, Alta, and Canoo. However, they seem to be selling well, and Ford has invested $500-Million in Rivian. Also, Amazon has ordered 100,000 delivery vans, so…lets take a look.

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Rivian R1S, the “big” SUV

At this point, I believe Rivian will survive and even become quite successful. The products from Tesla have a forward-thinking and modern look, but the Rivian models appeal to a customer who wants an EV that is slightly more conventional-looking. The company was formed in Florida around 2009, just after the national economic real-estate crash of 2008.

They started as “Mainstream Motors” as an offshoot of the successful Mainstream Engineering Corp. They then changed to “Avera Motors”, but it was soon deemed to be too similar to the Hyundai Azera and Aptera Motors, and their first product proposal was for a hybrid sports car, the R1. They finally landed on the “Rivian” brand in 2011.

I am pretty excited about all the electric VTOL’s that are progressing rapidly. The biggest reason we have been writing about electric aircraft is because they will be the drivers of advanced battery tech. The Tesla car company has produced pure EV’s that have a 300-mile range, so car companies are not pushing very hard to advance batteries. The aircraft industry (on the other hand) is continuing to spend many millions on battery improvements.

Also…electric aircraft are just fantastically cool.

I’m not going to list any electric drones, there are waaay too many of them (like these, click here). Also no electric planes here (like these, click here). The interesting thing about electric VTOL craft (Vertical Take Off and Landing), is that they will take over a large portion of the short-range market that is being served by helicopters. For instance, when a millionaire in Manhattan wants to go to the Albany airport to fly away in their private jet, they normally take a helicopter.

An electric VTOL is MUCH quieter than a helicopter. Plus, since it is electric it has a MUCH longer “Time Before Overhaul” (TBO). If an aircraft is using a fuel-driven engine, it needs to be overhauled and rebuilt to aircraft standards every so often. This is hugely expensive, and it means the money-making air-taxi is out of commission for a while. The motors for electric aircraft can go a very long time before its TBO, plus…a “rebuild” on an electric is pretty much just replacing two shaft bearings.

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This 1968 Opel Kadett hybrid-drivetrain prototype was way ahead of it’s time. It’s main issue was that it was using off-the-shelf lead-acid batteries, and there was only enough room for a small pack (The car in the header pic is just a random photo of a stock German Opel Kadett)

As an electric car in 1968, it was slow and had short-range. As far as performance, you could have swapped-in a larger motor and given it more amps. So, what could we do to provide more amps? A modern Lithium battery pack could easily provide an adequate amount of amps for enough acceleration to equal the gasoline version. This prototype used 14 of the common 12V batteries, for a nominal voltage of 168V.

The top-speed was near 55-MPH, which is too low for realistic commuting. If we raised the voltage of the system, it would improve the power (for acceleration) and also the top-speed. Zero motorcycles use a nominal (average) voltage of 103V (roughly 117V when fully charged). Two of the Zero packs could be used in series for 206V nominal. The Zero packs are also known for being able to provide very high amps.

Adding roughly 40V to the original 168V system would definitely help (about 25%), but the amps from a modern Zero motorcycle pack would make a HUGE difference. You might be asking yourself why a big corporation like General Motors (who owns Opel, from Germany), would put any time and effort into a hybrid where their previous experience with electrics already told them the electric performance was going to be weak when using 1,300 lbs of lead-acid batteries.

[*Stir-Lec was 3100-lb, and the stock gasoline-engine 1968 Opel Kadett was 1780-lb]

I’ve been waiting for something like this to happen, because…I knew something like this was eventually going to happen. It’s a second-gen 2007 Toyota Prius, and it clocked a verified ONE MILLION kilometers on the original battery pack and engine (621,000+ miles).

First, I’m going to list some info about what a Prius is, and then I’ll list a few hybrids that made it to very high miles, so we can see if there’s any pattern that we can learn from.

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Toyota Prius, Gen-1 (1997-2003)

In 1995, Toyota premiered their prototype hybrid Prius at the Tokyo motor show, and the very strong response encouraged them to go into full production. This was a full eight years before Tesla showed that a pure electric EV could perform well and still have decent range, in 2003.